The global mobility versus global fertility conundrum
Paradoxically, at a time when the anti-immigrant message of far-right groups – particularly in Europe and North America – is gaining unparalleled popularity among voters, a growing number of voices are insisting that global movement could be the only way to prevent economic collapse in the next decade or two.
This article is taken from the Spring 2025 issue of
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The reason for the latter simply comes down to births: the fact the fertility rate in most wealthy nations – including China, India, the US and virtually all of Europe – has now fallen well below the rate needed to sustain populations at current levels, which would leave ever-shrinking workforces incapable of generating the wherewithal to support a ‘silver tsunami’ of elderly.
The New York-based McKinsey Global Institute reported recently: “Falling fertility rates are propelling major economies toward population collapse in this century. Two-thirds of humanity lives in countries with fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. By 2100, populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 percent, based on UN projections.”
Age structures are inverting from pyramids to obelisks, as the number of older people grows and the number of younger people shrinks. The first wave of this demographic shift is hitting advanced economies and China, where the share of people of working age will fall to 59 per cent in 2050, from 67 per cent today. Later waves will engulf younger regions within one or two generations. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only exception.
“Last year, Yoon Suk Yeol, the-then president of South Korea where the fertility rate tumbled to just 0.72 in 2024, declared the birthrate a “national emergency” and announced plans for a dedicated government ministry to try and tackle the issue. Greece’s fertility rate of 1.3 poses an “existential” population threat, according Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
Read the rest of this article here on our sister website Relocate Global
